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The other day I was having a fun free poker site Sit and Go game when my belief in the strength of sets was severely shaken. If you’re not sure what I mean by set then it’s simple, it’s a hand made of a pocket pair plus a board card of the same rank, for example, you get pocket 6′s (6-6) and the flop comes up 4-6-8

More than this it was a sharp free online poker lesson in poker maturity for me! I know now when a Sets power is diminished.

A set can be really strong, for example, you have 6-6 and the flop comes A-10-6. In this situation, against A-x (excepting A-10), you are 99-1 favorite, and if another player happens to have A-K or A-Q, you will see all the problems he will face later when he goes all in or calls your all-in.

But at this Sit and Go, there were 6 six players (blinds 10-20, average stack 1500), I was first to go. I had 4c-4s. I raised to 50. The button called, as well as the blinds.

The flop came 4h-6h-7d. Small blind checked; before me, big blind bet 200.

I asked myself, “How could he make such a fat bet (pot-sized)?”. Those players in previous hands always play any hand that drops on their computer screens. They may have A-6 or A-7, but also 8-7 or even 8-5. Or any two Hearts. They never know when to fold or not. And you don’t know when your made Two-Pair will be crushed.

So I figured that the power of my Set was gravely reduced, so I just called in the hope that the Board would pair during the Turn, but the main reason is because there are were dangerous cards that can fall.

A Three, a Five or an Eight will render my Set unplayable, unless everyone checks; a Heart will jeopardize my chances.

Usually, I am inclined to move all-in with a Set, but there might be a stray Five. They are willing to call all-ins, even with draws. Even with gutshot draws. They do it all day.

And I can’t banish them out of a draw by power-play. What if all of them call?

The turn came 3d. There are two Flush draws on the Board and one to a Straight.

Small blind checks; the Big Blind moved all-in (he had 1400 chips, I had 1200).

On already a pot of 2200, although I am getting 2-to-1 on a call all-in (or possibly 3-to-1 or 4-to-1 if the two others call), I folded. The Button called; Small Blind folded.

They showed the hands I guessed they had: an Ad-5c, and Qh-Jh. Either way, I will be smothered if I called too; the chance of the Board pairing is just 25% (10 out of 40) and I would be getting only 3-to-1. Not only I escaped devastating math; I also escaped the onslaught of made hands and big draws.

The point is this, if a hand starts good but then goes sour it is no longer good and won’t EVER get good by magic! Its power is just history and if you keep with it your chip stack is likely to be history too!

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